Case study 03 • Commercial intelligence

Commercial Performance & Forecasting

An executive-style view that combines actuals, budget, forecast and scenario choices so the reporting answers both “what happened?” and “what should we do next?”.

Synthetic dataset • no employer data
DKK 5.29mYTD actual
+5.8%vs YTD budget
DKK 9.17mbase full-year forecast
4.98xefficiency scenario ROI

Reporting should create a decision rhythm

A useful management pack should not simply aggregate KPIs. It should make variance visible, give stakeholders a common set of definitions, and surface the small number of drivers that deserve a decision.

My preferred structureActual vs budget → forecast → driver analysis → scenario choice → actions and owners.

Technical proof

The reporting layer keeps actual, budget, forecast and scenario measures separate so the management view can explain variance without mixing observed and assumed performance.

ActualsObserved monthly results
BudgetApproved baseline
ForecastForward-looking assumptions
ScenarioInvestment / return choices
DAX • variance + scenario logicOpen measures ↗
Revenue Variance :=
[Actual Revenue] - [Budget Revenue]

Revenue Variance % :=
DIVIDE([Revenue Variance], [Budget Revenue])

Scenario ROI :=
DIVIDE([Scenario Revenue], [Scenario Investment])

Representative synthetic measures, designed to show reporting structure rather than reproduce employer models.

Actual, budget & forecast

ActualBudgetForecast

Actuals are ahead of budget through June. The forecast assumes that momentum continues, but the gap between forecast and budget narrows in later months. That is where scenario planning becomes more useful than simply extending a trend line.

Market view

MarketRevenue (k)GrowthMargin

Benelux has the highest growth rate, but Nordics contributes most revenue. South EU is growing more slowly and has the lowest margin, so a simple “fund the fastest growth” rule would miss important trade-offs.

Scenario choice

ScenarioRevenue (k)Investment (k)ROI
Decision framingThe growth scenario produces the most revenue, while the efficiency scenario produces the highest ROI. The right choice depends on strategic appetite, capacity and whether the incremental revenue is worth the additional investment.

What goes into the meeting

  • Keep one canonical forecast and show the assumptions rather than circulating competing spreadsheets.
  • Separate performance drivers that are within the team's control from market or mix effects.
  • Use scenarios to make trade-offs explicit rather than presenting one forecast as inevitable.
  • End the pack with decisions, owners and follow-up measures so the reporting becomes an operating rhythm.